Maine Senate: margin of victory
As of Mon, 26 Oct 2026 09:09:08 UTC, Kalshi traders price Troy Jackson, 0-2% (17.0%), Susan Collins, 0-2% (16.0%), Susan Collins, 2-4% (16.0%). The market has $6K in volume and closes on Wed, 03 Nov 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Jackson, 0-2% | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| Susan Collins, 0-2% | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Susan Collins, 2-4% | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Troy Jackson, 2-4% | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Troy Jackson, 4-6% | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Troy Jackson, 6-8% | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Troy Jackson, ≥8% | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Susan Collins, 4-6% | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Susan Collins, 6-8% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Susan Collins, ≥8% | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $6K
- Liquidity: $6K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Troy Jackson, 0-2%:
If the margin of victory for Troy Jackson in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine is within 0% to 2%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Troy Jackson minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Troy Jackson if Troy Jackson wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Troy Jackson loses. If Troy Jackson wins, the margin will be positive; if Troy Jackson loses, the margin will be negative; if Troy Jackson ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Troy Jackson runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Sources
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