Kansas Senate: margin of victory
As of Mon, 26 Oct 2026 07:03:12 UTC, Kalshi traders price Roger Marshall, 0-2% (18.0%), Adam Hamilton, 0-2% (17.0%), Roger Marshall, 2-4% (17.0%). The market has $16K in volume and closes on Wed, 03 Nov 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Marshall, 0-2% | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| Adam Hamilton, 0-2% | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| Roger Marshall, 2-4% | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| Adam Hamilton, 2-4% | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Roger Marshall, 4-6% | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Adam Hamilton, 4-6% | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Roger Marshall, 6-8% | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Roger Marshall, ≥10% | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Roger Marshall, 8-10% | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Adam Hamilton, 6-8% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Adam Hamilton, ≥8% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $16K
- Liquidity: $16K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Roger Marshall, 0-2%:
If the margin of victory for Roger Marshall in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas is within 0% to 2%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Roger Marshall minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Roger Marshall if Roger Marshall wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Roger Marshall loses. If Roger Marshall wins, the margin will be positive; if Roger Marshall loses, the margin will be negative; if Roger Marshall ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Roger Marshall runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Sources
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