Iowa Governor: margin of victory
As of Mon, 26 Oct 2026 07:03:16 UTC, Kalshi traders price Rob Sand, 6-8% (14.0%), Rob Sand, 4-6% (13.0%), Rob Sand, 2-4% (12.0%). The market has $9K in volume and closes on Wed, 03 Nov 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Sand, 6-8% | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Rob Sand, 4-6% | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Rob Sand, 2-4% | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Rob Sand, 8-10% | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Rob Sand, 0-2% | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Rob Sand, 10-12% | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Rob Sand, 12-14% | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Zach Lahn, 0-2% | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Zach Lahn, ≥2% | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Rob Sand, ≥14% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $9K
- Liquidity: $9K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Rob Sand, 6-8%:
If the margin of victory for Rob Sand in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Iowa is within 6% to 8%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Rob Sand minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Rob Sand if Rob Sand wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Rob Sand loses. If Rob Sand wins, the margin will be positive; if Rob Sand loses, the margin will be negative; if Rob Sand ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Rob Sand runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Sources
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