Florida Governor: margin of victory
As of Mon, 26 Oct 2026 07:03:08 UTC, Kalshi traders price Byron Donalds, 4-6% (16.0%), Byron Donalds, 2-4% (13.0%), Byron Donalds, 6-8% (13.0%). The market has $5K in volume and closes on Wed, 03 Nov 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Donalds, 4-6% | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Byron Donalds, 2-4% | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Byron Donalds, 6-8% | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Byron Donalds, 8-10% | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Byron Donalds, 10-12% | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Byron Donalds, 0-2% | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| David Jolly, 0-2% | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Byron Donalds, 12-14% | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Byron Donalds, 14-16% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Byron Donalds, ≥16% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| David Jolly, 2-4% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| David Jolly, ≥4% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $5K
- Liquidity: $5K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Byron Donalds, 4-6%:
If the margin of victory for Byron Donalds in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Florida is within 4% to 6%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Byron Donalds minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Byron Donalds if Byron Donalds wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Byron Donalds loses. If Byron Donalds wins, the margin will be positive; if Byron Donalds loses, the margin will be negative; if Byron Donalds ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Byron Donalds runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Sources
Related markets
- California Governor winner? (Person)
- Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Maine-Texas Senate Combo
- Blue wave this year?
- Blue tsunami this year?
- Alaska Governor winner?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.