France credit rating downgrade this year?
As of Mon, 26 Oct 2026 11:36:44 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (64.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 64.0% | 64.0¢ | 36.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If a downgrade by Moody’s, S&P, or Fitch, of France’s long-term foreign-currency sovereign issuer rating is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A qualifying downgrade is a reduction of at least one notch in France’s long-term foreign-currency issuer rating (Moody’s), sovereign credit rating (S&P), or Issuer Default Rating (Fitch), relative to that agency’s immediately preceding rating. Both the downgrade announcement and confirmation by at least one of the Source Agencies must occur during the market period. Scheduled and unscheduled downgrades count; a subsequent upgrade does not negate a downgrade. Outlook changes, watch/review placements, withdrawals, and changes solely to short-term or individual debt-instrument ratings do not count. Ratings of entities other than the Republic of France are excluded.
Sources
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