Which countries will report an Ebola case this year?
As of Sat, 07 Nov 2026 02:11:08 UTC, Kalshi traders price Central African Republic (57.0%), Tanzania (26.0%), Ethiopia (26.0%). The market has $520K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central African Republic | 57.0% | 57.0¢ | 43.0¢ |
| Tanzania | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| Ethiopia | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| South Sudan | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| Republic of the Congo | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
| Somalia | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
| Burundi | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| United Arab Emirates | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Rwanda | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| India | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Angola | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Zambia | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Italy | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Canada | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Thailand | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $520K
- Liquidity: $520K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Central African Republic:
If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic is officially reported after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only confirmed cases qualify; suspected, probable, or presumptive cases do not. Animal cases do not qualify. The case must be confirmed in Central African Republic — a citizen of Central African Republic diagnosed elsewhere does not count. Imported cases diagnosed within Central African Republic do count. Resolution is based on the date of official confirmation, not symptom onset. Cases confirmed after Jan 1, 2027 do not qualify even if infection occurred earlier.
Sources
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