Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 05:13:49 UTC, Kalshi traders price Pete Buttigieg (33.0%), Andy Beshear (23.0%), Gavin Newsom (13.0%). The market has $93K in volume and closes on Tue, 07 Nov 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Buttigieg | 33.0% | 33.0¢ | 67.0¢ |
| Andy Beshear | 23.0% | 23.0¢ | 77.0¢ |
| Gavin Newsom | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| J.B. Pritzker | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Kamala Harris | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Josh Shapiro | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Jon Ossoff | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Wes Moore | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $93K
- Liquidity: $93K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Pete Buttigieg:
If Pete Buttigieg is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office. The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance. Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify. The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.
Sources
Related markets
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- 2028 Democratic VP nominee
- 2028 Republican VP nominee
- Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.