Which central banks will hike before 2027?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 04:22:29 UTC, Kalshi traders price Reserve Bank of Australia (98.0%), Bank of England (95.0%), Bank of Canada (91.0%). The market has $98K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reserve Bank of Australia | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| Bank of England | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Bank of Canada | 91.0% | 91.0¢ | 9.0¢ |
| Riksbank | 48.0% | 48.0¢ | 52.0¢ |
| Swiss National Bank | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $98K
- Liquidity: $98K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Reserve Bank of Australia:
If the Reserve Bank of Australia raising its cash rate target is confirmed by the relevant Source Agency after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A rate increase qualifies whether announced at a scheduled or unscheduled policy meeting. Forward guidance, speeches, projections, dissents, meeting minutes, analyst forecasts, or market-implied probabilities do not qualify unless the central bank officially announces an increase in the applicable policy rate. The market resolves based on the official announcement date of the rate increase, not the effective date, unless the announcement does not specify a decision date, in which case the effective date will be used. If the named central bank changes its monetary policy framework, renames its policy rate, or replaces the applicable policy rate before Jan. 1, 2027, the Exchange will use the central bank’s new main policy interest rate that is most directly comparable to the rate specified above.
Sources
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