Big box credit card spend array index in October 2026
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:56 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 88 (96.0%), Above 92 (96.0%), Above 94 (96.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Thu, 12 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 88 | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Above 92 | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Above 94 | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Above 90 | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Above 96 | 66.0% | 66.0¢ | 34.0¢ |
| Above 98 | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Above 100 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Above 108 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Above 102 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Above 104 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Above 106 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 88:
If the Carbon Arc Big box credit card spend array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 88, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on the Carbon Arc Big Box Array value for the full month covered by this market, as recorded by Kalshi at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 4th calendar day after the end of that month. For example, the value for August is recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on September 4. Later corrections or revisions will not affect the recorded value. The reference is Carbon Arc's published full-month Big Box Array level: https://www.carbonarc.co/prisms?prism=e7120baa-c555-4766-b1b7-99012347c8cd&entity=Big+Box. The underlying metric is credit card spend. The array is the equally weighted arithmetic mean of its constituent year-over-year indices. At listing, its members are Walmart Inc., Target, Best Buy Co, Costco Wholesale Corporation, each weighted 1/4. Each constituent index is 100 when its measured credit card spend equals the same month of the previous year; the array averages these indices. An array level of 103 means the constituents' average year-over-year growth is 3%, and 97 means their average decline is 3%. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying companies. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Sources
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