When will AP call the NC-03 House election?
As of Thu, 05 Nov 2026 16:59:40 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 4 (97.0%), Before Dec 15 (91.0%), Before Dec 1 (87.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Wed, 11 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 4 | 97.0% | 97.0¢ | 3.0¢ |
| Before Dec 15 | 91.0% | 91.0¢ | 9.0¢ |
| Before Dec 1 | 87.0% | 87.0¢ | 13.0¢ |
| Before Nov 25 | 82.0% | 82.0¢ | 18.0¢ |
| Before Nov 18 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Before Nov 14 | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Before Nov 13 | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 4:
If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 North Carolina 3rd Congressional District U.S. House election before 12:00 AM ET on Jan 4, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, or equivalent clear language indicating AP has determined the winner. The phrase "projected to win" alone is insufficient; it must be AP's clear election call. The call must appear on one of AP's primary platforms (main website, television broadcast, or official social media if that is its primary medium) and not be prefaced with qualifiers suggesting uncertainty such as "appears to," "likely to," "probably," or "may have." The relevant time is when the call first becomes publicly visible, not when it may have been written, decided internally, or prepared for publication. If the call is later retracted, the market resolves to Yes based on the call time. Preliminary exit polls, reporting of other outlets' calls, conditional statements, opinion pieces, and technical glitches do not qualify.
Sources
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