5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 2, 2026?

As of Fri, 02 Oct 2026 08:22:30 UTC, Kalshi traders price 4.91% or above (92.0%), 4.93% or above (90.0%), 4.95% or above (71.0%). The market has $9K in volume and closes on Fri, 02 Oct 2026.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
4.91% or above92.0%92.0¢8.0¢
4.93% or above90.0%90.0¢10.0¢
4.95% or above71.0%71.0¢29.0¢
4.97% or above64.0%64.0¢36.0¢
4.99% or above49.0%49.0¢51.0¢
5.01% or above47.0%47.0¢53.0¢
5.03% or above43.0%43.0¢57.0¢
5.05% or above27.0%27.0¢73.0¢
5.07% or above18.0%18.0¢82.0¢
5.11% or above17.0%17.0¢83.0¢
5.09% or above15.0%15.0¢85.0¢
5.13% or above10.0%10.0¢90.0¢
5.15% or above8.0%8.0¢92.0¢
5.17% or above4.0%4.0¢96.0¢
5.19% or above3.0%3.0¢97.0¢

Market details

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 4.93% or above:

If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.92% on Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 2, 2026, or one week following Oct 2, 2026.

Sources

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