5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026?
As of Fri, 16 Oct 2026 19:58:33 UTC, Kalshi traders price 4.86% or above (83.0%), 4.88% or above (81.0%), 4.9% or above (78.0%). The market has $5K in volume and closes on Fri, 16 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.86% or above | 83.0% | 83.0¢ | 17.0¢ |
| 4.88% or above | 81.0% | 81.0¢ | 19.0¢ |
| 4.9% or above | 78.0% | 78.0¢ | 22.0¢ |
| 4.92% or above | 65.0% | 65.0¢ | 35.0¢ |
| 4.96% or above | 52.0% | 52.0¢ | 48.0¢ |
| 4.94% or above | 49.0% | 49.0¢ | 51.0¢ |
| 5.04% or above | 48.0% | 48.0¢ | 52.0¢ |
| 5.06% or above | 42.0% | 42.0¢ | 58.0¢ |
| 5.08% or above | 39.0% | 39.0¢ | 61.0¢ |
| 5.1% or above | 38.0% | 38.0¢ | 62.0¢ |
| 5.14% or above | 37.0% | 37.0¢ | 63.0¢ |
| 5% or above | 37.0% | 37.0¢ | 63.0¢ |
| 5.12% or above | 37.0% | 37.0¢ | 63.0¢ |
| 5.02% or above | 36.0% | 36.0¢ | 64.0¢ |
| 4.98% or above | 24.0% | 24.0¢ | 76.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $5K
- Liquidity: $5K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 4.92% or above:
If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.91% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 16, 2026, or one week following Oct 16, 2026.
Sources
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