Will the Sahm Rule trigger this year?
As of Thu, 22 Oct 2026 15:43:36 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (7.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Fri, 15 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If the real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for any monthly observation from Issuance through December 2026 is At least 0.50ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the first published value for the applicable monthly observation in FRED series SAHMREALTIME. Revisions to previously published values will not be considered. The market does not depend on whether the National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession. A value exactly equal to 0.50 qualifies.
Sources
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