10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:57 UTC, Kalshi traders price 4.96% or above (82.0%), 4.98% or above (79.0%), 5% or above (75.0%). The market has $20K in volume and closes on Fri, 30 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.96% or above | 82.0% | 82.0¢ | 18.0¢ |
| 4.98% or above | 79.0% | 79.0¢ | 21.0¢ |
| 5% or above | 75.0% | 75.0¢ | 25.0¢ |
| 5.02% or above | 73.0% | 73.0¢ | 27.0¢ |
| 5.04% or above | 69.0% | 69.0¢ | 31.0¢ |
| 5.06% or above | 64.0% | 64.0¢ | 36.0¢ |
| 5.08% or above | 62.0% | 62.0¢ | 38.0¢ |
| 5.1% or above | 57.0% | 57.0¢ | 43.0¢ |
| 5.12% or above | 53.0% | 53.0¢ | 47.0¢ |
| 5.14% or above | 49.0% | 49.0¢ | 51.0¢ |
| 5.16% or above | 49.0% | 49.0¢ | 51.0¢ |
| 5.18% or above | 43.0% | 43.0¢ | 57.0¢ |
| 5.2% or above | 34.0% | 34.0¢ | 66.0¢ |
| 5.22% or above | 30.0% | 30.0¢ | 70.0¢ |
| 5.24% or above | 27.0% | 27.0¢ | 73.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $20K
- Liquidity: $20K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 4.96% or above:
If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.95% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 30, 2026, or one week following Oct 30, 2026.
Sources
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