10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 21, 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 22:43:27 UTC, Kalshi traders price 5.03% or above (96.0%), 5.05% or above (91.0%), 5.07% or above (84.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Wed, 21 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.03% or above | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| 5.05% or above | 91.0% | 91.0¢ | 9.0¢ |
| 5.07% or above | 84.0% | 84.0¢ | 16.0¢ |
| 5.09% or above | 74.0% | 74.0¢ | 26.0¢ |
| 5.11% or above | 62.0% | 62.0¢ | 38.0¢ |
| 5.01% or above | 55.0% | 55.0¢ | 45.0¢ |
| 5.13% or above | 53.0% | 53.0¢ | 47.0¢ |
| 5.23% or above | 45.0% | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ |
| 5.25% or above | 45.0% | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ |
| 5.15% or above | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| 5.17% or above | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| 5.19% or above | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| 5.21% or above | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| 5.29% or above | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| 5.27% or above | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 5.21% or above:
If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.20% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 21, 2026, or one week following Oct 21, 2026.
Sources
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