10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026?
As of Fri, 16 Oct 2026 19:58:33 UTC, Kalshi traders price 5.12% or above (71.0%), 5.1% or above (64.0%), 5.06% or above (62.0%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Fri, 16 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.12% or above | 71.0% | 71.0¢ | 29.0¢ |
| 5.1% or above | 64.0% | 64.0¢ | 36.0¢ |
| 5.06% or above | 62.0% | 62.0¢ | 38.0¢ |
| 5.08% or above | 62.0% | 62.0¢ | 38.0¢ |
| 5.14% or above | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| 5.24% or above | 43.0% | 43.0¢ | 57.0¢ |
| 5.2% or above | 42.0% | 42.0¢ | 58.0¢ |
| 5.22% or above | 37.0% | 37.0¢ | 63.0¢ |
| 5.18% or above | 37.0% | 37.0¢ | 63.0¢ |
| 5.26% or above | 36.0% | 36.0¢ | 64.0¢ |
| 5.16% or above | 32.0% | 32.0¢ | 68.0¢ |
| 5.32% or above | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| 5.28% or above | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| 5.3% or above | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| 5.34% or above | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 5.06% or above:
If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.05% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 16, 2026, or one week following Oct 16, 2026.
Sources
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