10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 15, 2026?
As of Thu, 15 Oct 2026 07:58:05 UTC, Kalshi traders price 5.08% or above (87.0%), 5.06% or above (64.0%), 5.12% or above (52.0%). The market has $29K in volume and closes on Thu, 15 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.08% or above | 87.0% | 87.0¢ | 13.0¢ |
| 5.06% or above | 64.0% | 64.0¢ | 36.0¢ |
| 5.12% or above | 52.0% | 52.0¢ | 48.0¢ |
| 5.1% or above | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| 5.2% or above | 39.0% | 39.0¢ | 61.0¢ |
| 5.16% or above | 37.0% | 37.0¢ | 63.0¢ |
| 5.14% or above | 27.0% | 27.0¢ | 73.0¢ |
| 5.18% or above | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| 5.22% or above | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| 5.24% or above | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| 5.26% or above | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| 5.28% or above | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| 5.3% or above | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| 5.32% or above | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| 5.34% or above | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $29K
- Liquidity: $29K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 5.1% or above:
If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.09% on Oct 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 15, 2026, or one week following Oct 15, 2026.
Sources
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