Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?
As of Fri, 24 Jul 2026 23:57:49 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (1.3%). The market has $23K in volume and closes on Wed, 04 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.3% | 1.3¢ | 98.7¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $23K
- Liquidity: $12K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources
Related markets
- Will the SAVE Act become law?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Will the SAVE America Act become law?
- Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?
- Will the cap on gambling loss deduction be repealed?
- Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.