Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
As of Tue, 11 Aug 2026 19:51:09 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (1.7%). The market has $198K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.7% | 1.7¢ | 98.3¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $198K
- Liquidity: $7K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources
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