Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?
As of Thu, 17 Sep 2026 21:47:12 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Nov 1, 2026 (99.0%), Before Jan 1, 2027 (98.0%). The market has $80K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $80K
- Liquidity: $80K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Nov 1, 2026:
If a bill sanctioning Russia has become law after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The legislation must establish new material restrictive measures explicitly targeting the Russian Federation by mandating or authorizing: (i) new primary sanctions against Russia or key economic sectors (ii) new secondary sanctions on foreign third parties facilitating Russian trade or evasion (iii) the seizure and transfer of blocked or immobilized Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine; and/or (iv) the designation of Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism that triggers automatic sanctions. Routine re-authorizations or technical modifications of existing programs—such as those sometimes included in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) or appropriations bills—are excluded.
Sources
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