Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:50:36 UTC, Polymarket traders price Philippines (46.5%), Japan (46.0%), Chile (33.5%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Wed, 04 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philippines | 46.5% | 46.5¢ | 53.5¢ |
| Japan | 46.0% | 46.0¢ | 54.0¢ |
| Chile | 33.5% | 33.5¢ | 66.5¢ |
| Indonesia | 29.5% | 29.5¢ | 70.5¢ |
| United States | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| Mexico | 20.5% | 20.5¢ | 79.5¢ |
| Peru | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No". A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify. Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first. If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to…
Sources
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