Where will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?

As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 14:40:57 UTC, Polymarket traders price 7th-9th (50.5%), 10th-12th (27.0%), Below 15th (5.3%). The market has $17K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Feb 2027.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
7th-9th50.5%50.5¢49.5¢
10th-12th27.0%27.0¢73.0¢
Below 15th5.3%5.3¢94.8¢
6th or higher4.5%4.5¢95.5¢
13th-15th4.0%4.0¢96.0¢

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to where 2026 ranks by total annual domestic box office gross among all years on record. The annual "Total Gross" figures found on the "Domestic Yearly Box Office" chart on Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/) will be used to resolve this market once the 2026 value is final. 2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same chart, such that the highest-grossing year on record ranks 1st, the second-highest ranks 2nd, and so on. This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank. This market will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes. This market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo annual figures regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc., and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses earned by films released in prior years. If 2026's final figure is exactly equal to that of another year, 2026 will be treated as holding the higher-ranking (lower-numbered) of the tied positions for the purposes of determining its bracket. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Sources

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