When will Las Vegas receive an NBA expansion team?

As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:45 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Nov 1, 2026 (99.0%), Before Jan 1, 2030 (95.0%), Before Jan 1, 2029 (94.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Jan 2030.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Before Nov 1, 202699.0%99.0¢1.0¢
Before Jan 1, 203095.0%95.0¢5.0¢
Before Jan 1, 202994.0%94.0¢6.0¢
Before Jan 1, 202890.0%90.0¢10.0¢
Before Feb 1, 202780.0%80.0¢20.0¢
Before Jan 1, 202777.0%77.0¢23.0¢
Before Dec 1, 202651.0%51.0¢49.0¢
Before Oct 15, 202650.0%50.0¢50.0¢

Market details

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Nov 1, 2026:

If the National Basketball Association (NBA) officially announces the award of an expansion team franchise to Las Vegas after issuance and before November 1, 2026, the market resolves to Yes. An official NBA expansion franchise award specifically naming Las Vegas or its metropolitan area is required, with formal approval by the NBA Board of Governors. The award must occur after market issuance and before the specified date, interpreted as 12:00 AM ET. Future play may begin after that date. Unofficial reporting, preliminary negotiations, selection as a prospective expansion market, stadium approval alone, and conditional awards with unresolved conditions at the deadline do not qualify. Merely choosing a preferred bidder does not qualify without the required franchise award and approval. An award announced before issuance does not count. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the National Basketball Association. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Sources

Related markets

DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.