What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?
As of Thu, 01 Oct 2026 23:37:34 UTC, Polymarket traders price $407K - $411K (47.5%), $403K - $407K (33.0%), $411K - $415K (8.5%). The market has $15K in volume and closes on Mon, 11 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| $407K - $411K | 47.5% | 47.5¢ | 52.5¢ |
| $403K - $407K | 33.0% | 33.0¢ | 67.0¢ |
| $411K - $415K | 8.5% | 8.5¢ | 91.5¢ |
| $415K - $419K | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| <$403K | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| $423K+ | 4.7% | 4.7¢ | 95.3¢ |
| $419K - $423K | 2.6% | 2.6¢ | 97.4¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $15K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on December 31, 2026. If no data for December 31 is released by January 10, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/57)
Sources
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