What will JD Vance say during his rally in Howell, Michigan?
As of Tue, 27 Oct 2026 13:58:48 UTC, Kalshi traders price Biden (81.0%), Border (77.0%), Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime (76.0%). The market has $10K in volume and closes on Tue, 10 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | 81.0% | 81.0¢ | 19.0¢ |
| Border | 77.0% | 77.0¢ | 23.0¢ |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | 76.0% | 76.0¢ | 24.0¢ |
| Social Security | 73.0% | 73.0¢ | 27.0¢ |
| Fraud | 69.0% | 69.0¢ | 31.0¢ |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 66.0% | 66.0¢ | 34.0¢ |
| Steel | 63.0% | 63.0¢ | 37.0¢ |
| Working Class / Middle Class | 60.0% | 60.0¢ | 40.0¢ |
| American Dream | 60.0% | 60.0¢ | 40.0¢ |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 57.0% | 57.0¢ | 43.0¢ |
| Midterm | 57.0% | 57.0¢ | 43.0¢ |
| Auto Worker / Autoworker | 55.0% | 55.0¢ | 45.0¢ |
| America First | 52.0% | 52.0¢ | 48.0¢ |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | 52.0% | 52.0¢ | 48.0¢ |
| 2028 / Campaign | 49.0% | 49.0¢ | 51.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $10K
- Liquidity: $10K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Biden:
If JD Vance says Biden as part of midterm rally in Howell, Michigan originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved Video of the midterm rally in Howell, Michigan originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream. If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the midterm rally in Howell, Michigan originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 will be used. Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word. Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc). JD Vance speaking in an official capacity. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic). Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address. Payout for cancellations and delays If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other…
Sources
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