US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 13:13:49 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 0.0% (99.0%), Above 1.0% (99.0%), Above 0.5% (99.0%). The market has $278K in volume and closes on Fri, 30 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Above 1.0% | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Above 0.5% | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Above 1.5% | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Above 2.0% | 89.0% | 89.0¢ | 11.0¢ |
| Above 2.5% | 81.0% | 81.0¢ | 19.0¢ |
| Above 3.0% | 66.0% | 66.0¢ | 34.0¢ |
| Above 3.5% | 39.0% | 39.0¢ | 61.0¢ |
| Above 4.0% | 23.0% | 23.0¢ | 77.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $278K
- Liquidity: $278K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 0.0%:
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.0, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q3 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.
Sources
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