Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)
As of Mon, 12 Oct 2026 21:51:21 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 10 (99.0%), Above 15 (98.0%), Above 20 (91.0%). The market has $414K in volume and closes on Tue, 13 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 10 | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Above 15 | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| Above 20 | 91.0% | 91.0¢ | 9.0¢ |
| Above 22 | 73.0% | 73.0¢ | 27.0¢ |
| Above 25 | 41.0% | 41.0¢ | 59.0¢ |
| Above 30 | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Above 35 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Above 40 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Above 45 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Above 50 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Above 75 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Above 100 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $414K
- Liquidity: $414K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 10:
If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 10 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Sources
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