Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/21 - 9/27)
As of Wed, 23 Sep 2026 12:20:06 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 150 (97.0%), Above 175 (87.0%), Above 200 (3.0%). The market has $91K in volume and closes on Tue, 29 Sep 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 150 | 97.0% | 97.0¢ | 3.0¢ |
| Above 175 | 87.0% | 87.0¢ | 13.0¢ |
| Above 200 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Above 225 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Above 250 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $91K
- Liquidity: $91K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 150:
If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 150 from Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Sources
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