September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

As of Wed, 02 Sep 2026 21:11:30 UTC, Polymarket traders price 1.35–1.39ºC (90.5%), <1.30ºC (0.1%), 1.40–1.44ºC (0.1%). The market has $5K in volume and closes on Mon, 02 Nov 2026.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
1.35–1.39ºC90.5%90.5¢9.5¢
<1.30ºC0.1%0.1¢100.0¢
1.40–1.44ºC0.1%0.1¢100.0¢
1.30–1.34ºC0.1%0.1¢100.0¢
1.45–1.49ºC0.1%0.1¢100.0¢
>1.49ºC0.1%0.1¢100.0¢

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Sources

Related markets

DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.