SEBI Finds Jane Street Manipulated Markets by 2026？

As of Fri, 25 Sep 2026 21:03:58 UTC, Opinion traders price Yes (10.4%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Yes10.4%10.4¢89.6¢

Market details

Resolution rules

Resolution Deadline December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM IST. This market resolves to“Yes”if by the resolution deadline, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) publishes or issues a Final Order or Adjudication Order that explicitly concludes that Jane Street: engaged in market manipulation, fraud, or unfair trade practices, or violated the SEBI Prohibition of Fraudulent and Unfair Trade Practices Regulations (PFUTP). This market resolves to“No”if, by the resolution deadline: no qualifying SEBI Final Order / Adjudication Order is issued, or SEBI issues only interim orders, show-cause notices, investigation updates, press statements, or charges/allegations without a qualifying final determination. Edge case: Judicial Overrule. If SEBI issues a qualifying final finding that would otherwise trigger “Yes”, but before the resolution deadline that finding is fully set aside / vacated (i.e., completely nullified on the merits) by either: the Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT), or the Supreme Court of India, then the market resolves “No.” Notes for clarity: If an appeal is pending, or the SEBI order is stayed but not fully set aside/vacated, the market still resolves based on whether a qualifying SEBI final order exists by the deadline. If a court/SAT partially modifies the SEBI order but leaves intact a conclusion that Jane Street violated PFUTP / engaged in manipulation, it remains “Yes.” Primary Sources SEBI official order/publication pages, official gazette postings…

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