Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4)
As of Mon, 05 Oct 2026 06:09:51 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 4 (94.0%), Above 6 (28.0%), Above 10 (4.0%). The market has $104K in volume and closes on Tue, 06 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4 | 94.0% | 94.0¢ | 6.0¢ |
| Above 6 | 28.0% | 28.0¢ | 72.0¢ |
| Above 10 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Above 8 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Above 12 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Above 14 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $104K
- Liquidity: $104K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 4:
If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 4 from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Sources
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