Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/21 - 9/27)
As of Tue, 29 Sep 2026 12:34:11 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 5 (40.0%), Above 20 (2.0%), Above 10 (1.0%). The market has $129K in volume and closes on Tue, 29 Sep 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5 | 40.0% | 40.0¢ | 60.0¢ |
| Above 20 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Above 10 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Above 15 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Above 25 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Above 30 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $129K
- Liquidity: $129K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 5:
If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 5 from Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Sources
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