Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/14 - 9/20)
As of Tue, 22 Sep 2026 12:37:03 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 5 (98.0%), Above 15 (2.0%), Above 25 (2.0%). The market has $100K in volume and closes on Tue, 22 Sep 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5 | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| Above 15 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Above 25 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Above 10 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Above 20 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Above 30 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $100K
- Liquidity: $100K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 5:
If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 5 from Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 20, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Sources
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