October 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 10:26:57 UTC, Polymarket traders price 1st hottest (97.3%), 3rd hottest (2.5%), 2nd hottest (0.4%). The market has $12K in volume and closes on Sun, 29 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st hottest | 97.3% | 97.3¢ | 2.8¢ |
| 3rd hottest | 2.5% | 2.5¢ | 97.5¢ |
| 2nd hottest | 0.4% | 0.4¢ | 99.7¢ |
| 4th or lower | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 99.9¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $12K
- Liquidity: $14K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 versus the data points available for all other Octobers on record. Note: If October 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Sources
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