Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?
As of Wed, 04 Nov 2026 05:59:17 UTC, Polymarket traders price No release by November 30 (33.0%), November 25 (25.5%), November 4 (25.5%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| No release by November 30 | 33.0% | 33.0¢ | 67.0¢ |
| November 25 | 25.5% | 25.5¢ | 74.5¢ |
| November 4 | 25.5% | 25.5¢ | 74.5¢ |
| November 10 | 25.1% | 25.1¢ | 75.0¢ |
| November 7 | 25.1% | 25.1¢ | 75.0¢ |
| November 8 | 25.1% | 25.1¢ | 75.0¢ |
| November 19 | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| November 17 | 24.0% | 24.0¢ | 76.0¢ |
| November 9 | 23.5% | 23.5¢ | 76.5¢ |
| November 11 | 23.0% | 23.0¢ | 77.0¢ |
| November 12 | 23.0% | 23.0¢ | 77.0¢ |
| November 5 | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| November 15 | 21.5% | 21.5¢ | 78.5¢ |
| November 21 | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
| November 29 | 19.5% | 19.5¢ | 80.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official in…
Sources
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