Next Grok Model (4.8+) released on...?
As of Thu, 29 Oct 2026 02:02:26 UTC, Polymarket traders price No release by November 30 (23.0%), November 6 (18.5%), November 15 (11.5%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| No release by November 30 | 23.0% | 23.0¢ | 77.0¢ |
| November 6 | 18.5% | 18.5¢ | 81.5¢ |
| November 15 | 11.5% | 11.5¢ | 88.5¢ |
| November 13 | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| November 3 | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| November 19 | 10.5% | 10.5¢ | 89.5¢ |
| November 29 | 10.5% | 10.5¢ | 89.5¢ |
| November 9 | 10.5% | 10.5¢ | 89.5¢ |
| November 22 | 10.5% | 10.5¢ | 89.5¢ |
| November 20 | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| November 27 | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| November 7 | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| November 11 | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| November 17 | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| November 21 | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.8+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or Grok 4.7 would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.8, such as Grok 4.7 (released September 21, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labe…
Sources
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