Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Rank Debut?
As of Thu, 29 Oct 2026 02:00:38 UTC, Polymarket traders price Top 10 (87.5%), Top 5 (79.0%), Top 3 (56.5%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Jul 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top 10 | 87.5% | 87.5¢ | 12.5¢ |
| Top 5 | 79.0% | 79.0¢ | 21.0¢ |
| Top 3 | 56.5% | 56.5¢ | 43.5¢ |
| Top 1 | 29.5% | 29.5¢ | 70.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $768
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) holds a rank within the specified top ranks when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None), in the "Models" view, and with no other filters applied will be used to resolve this market. A model debuts within the specified top ranks if its displayed rank at the check time is equal to or better than the specified rank (for example, a displayed rank of 4 is within the top 5 and the top 10). This market will resolve solely based on…
Sources
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