Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
As of Thu, 29 Oct 2026 03:31:33 UTC, Polymarket traders price November 5 (25.4%), No release by November 30 (16.5%), November 2 (14.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Fri, 06 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 5 | 25.4% | 25.4¢ | 74.6¢ |
| No release by November 30 | 16.5% | 16.5¢ | 83.5¢ |
| November 2 | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| November 9 | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| November 24 | 12.5% | 12.5¢ | 87.5¢ |
| November 13 | 12.5% | 12.5¢ | 87.5¢ |
| November 21 | 12.5% | 12.5¢ | 87.5¢ |
| November 20 | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| November 26 | 11.5% | 11.5¢ | 88.5¢ |
| November 3 | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| November 29 | 10.5% | 10.5¢ | 89.5¢ |
| November 14 | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| November 30 | 9.5% | 9.5¢ | 90.5¢ |
| November 22 | 9.5% | 9.5¢ | 90.5¢ |
| November 23 | 9.5% | 9.5¢ | 90.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $6K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources
Related markets
- Anthropic lab leak by...?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.