Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): HLE-Diamond Debut?
As of Fri, 23 Oct 2026 03:37:05 UTC, Polymarket traders price 50%+ (97.0%), 55%+ (83.0%), 60%+ (42.0%). The market has $8K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Jul 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50%+ | 97.0% | 97.0¢ | 2.9¢ |
| 55%+ | 83.0% | 83.0¢ | 17.0¢ |
| 60%+ | 42.0% | 42.0¢ | 58.0¢ |
| 65%+ | 17.5% | 17.5¢ | 82.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $8K
- Liquidity: $6K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model (5.6+) added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE-Diamond Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. The percentage displayed as "HLE-Diamond Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on HLE-Diamond" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the HLE-Diamond Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, any note that a score was computed on a sample of questions, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If the Center for AI Safety (CAIS), which maintains the official Humanity's Last Exam results, pub…
Sources
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