Newsom's Democratic nomination odds hit __ by December 31?
As of Wed, 04 Nov 2026 03:10:44 UTC, Polymarket traders price ↓ 12% (52.5%), ↓ 10% (36.5%), ↑ 20% (28.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 12% | 52.5% | 52.5¢ | 47.5¢ |
| ↓ 10% | 36.5% | 36.5¢ | 63.5¢ |
| ↑ 20% | 28.0% | 28.0¢ | 72.0¢ |
| ↑ 25% | 5.5% | 5.5¢ | 94.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $53K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for ↓ 12%:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom's hourly odds value in the "2028 Democratic Nomination" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com is equal to or below 12% for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which Gavin Newsom's hourly odds value is above 12% ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for Gavin Newsom (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Gavin Newsom in the "2028 Democratic Nomination" listing before January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing Gavin Newsom from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for Gavin Newsom between market creation and January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the u…
Sources
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