Newsom flips Vance for 2028 president by March 31?
As of Wed, 04 Nov 2026 15:25:09 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (20.5%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Apr 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20.5% | 20.5¢ | 79.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $11K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom's hourly odds value is higher than JD Vance's hourly odds value in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Candidate" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Gavin Newsom being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Gavin Newsom or JD Vance in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Candidate" listing before April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both Gavin Newsom and JD Vance between market creation and April…
Sources
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