Gemini Carbon: HLE-Diamond Debut?
As of Thu, 29 Oct 2026 02:00:39 UTC, Polymarket traders price 55%+ (95.3%), 50%+ (91.0%), 60%+ (82.5%). The market has $10K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Jul 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55%+ | 95.3% | 95.3¢ | 4.7¢ |
| 50%+ | 91.0% | 91.0¢ | 9.0¢ |
| 60%+ | 82.5% | 82.5¢ | 17.5¢ |
| 65%+ | 44.0% | 44.0¢ | 56.0¢ |
| 70%+ | 26.5% | 26.5¢ | 73.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $10K
- Liquidity: $6K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Google "Carbon" model added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE-Diamond Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model listed under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon, will qualify only if it is confirmed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon". Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model. The percentage displayed as "HLE-Diamond Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on HLE-Diamond" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve sole…
Sources
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