Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by...?
As of Wed, 28 Oct 2026 00:52:55 UTC, Polymarket traders price June 30 (64.5%), December 31 (38.5%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Jul 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 64.5% | 64.5¢ | 35.5¢ |
| December 31 | 38.5% | 38.5¢ | 61.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $630
- Closes:
Resolution rules
On October 26, 2026, OpenAI announced that its AI system "proved that the ETH is false, a result that was subsequently verified in Lean." (see: https://openai.com/index/building-scientific-understanding-with-academic-communities/) This market will resolve to "Yes" if a disproof of the Exponential Time Hypothesis is confirmed through at least one of the qualifying confirmation methods listed below by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Exponential Time Hypothesis" refers to the conjecture formulated by Russell Impagliazzo and Ramamohan Paturi that the 3-SAT problem cannot be solved in subexponential time. A "disproof" refers to any mathematical proof that the Exponential Time Hypothesis is false, including the proof presented in OpenAI's paper titled "The Exponential Time Hypothesis is False" (https://github.com/openai/math/blob/main/preprints/The-Exponential-Time-Hypothesis-is-False-October-25-2026/paper.pdf) and any corrected, revised, or extended version of it, whether by OpenAI or by others. Confirmations that only establish a weaker result, such as a faster algorithm that does not refute the Exponential Time Hypothesis, or that only establish that OpenAI's Lean code compiles, will not qualify. The qualifying confirmation methods are: (i) Peer-reviewed publication: a paper presenting a disproof, whether authored by OpenAI or by other researchers, is published in, or accepted for publication by, a reputable peer-reviewed sc…
Sources
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