ECB Interest Rates: December 2026
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 08:19:33 UTC, Polymarket traders price 25 bps increase (81.5%), No change (15.0%), 50+ bps increase (2.1%). The market has $8K in volume and closes on Thu, 17 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 81.5% | 81.5¢ | 18.5¢ |
| No change | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| 50+ bps increase | 2.1% | 2.1¢ | 98.0¢ |
| 25 bps decrease | 1.3% | 1.3¢ | 98.8¢ |
| 50+ bps decrease | 1.2% | 1.2¢ | 98.8¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $8K
- Liquidity: $21K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is…
Sources
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