Dem sweep & US recession by end of 2027?
As of Tue, 03 Nov 2026 12:15:41 UTC, Polymarket traders price Dem sweep; No recession (48.4%), Dem sweep; Recession (23.3%), No Dem sweep; No recession (22.8%). The market has $7K in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Feb 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dem sweep; No recession | 48.4% | 48.4¢ | 51.6¢ |
| Dem sweep; Recession | 23.3% | 23.3¢ | 76.7¢ |
| No Dem sweep; No recession | 22.8% | 22.8¢ | 77.2¢ |
| No Dem sweep; Recession | 5.5% | 5.5¢ | 94.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $7K
- Liquidity: $18K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether the Democratic Party wins control of both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election and (2) whether the United States enters a recession by the end of 2027. Options beginning "Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party to win control of both chambers. Options beginning "No Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party not to win control of at least one of the two chambers. Each option then names the result of the second component ("Recession" or "No recession"), as defined below. The option matching both results will resolve to "Yes", and all other options will resolve to "No". US recession: This component is "Recession" if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027. Otherwise, it is "No recession". Advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release the advance estimate for Q3 2026 was negative and the most recent estimate for Q2…
Sources
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