Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027?
As of Mon, 02 Nov 2026 11:37:40 UTC, Polymarket traders price Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken (59.2%), No Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken (21.6%), Dem sweep; Ceasefire holds (15.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken | 59.2% | 59.2¢ | 40.8¢ |
| No Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken | 21.6% | 21.6¢ | 78.4¢ |
| Dem sweep; Ceasefire holds | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| No Dem sweep; Ceasefire holds | 4.8% | 4.8¢ | 95.3¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $57K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether the Democratic Party wins control of both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election and (2) whether the United States refrains from a qualifying military action against Iran through the end of 2027. Options beginning "Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party to win control of both chambers. Options beginning "No Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party not to win control of at least one of the two chambers. Each option then names the result of the second component ("Ceasefire holds" or "Ceasefire broken"), as defined below. The option matching both results will resolve to "Yes", and all other options will resolve to "No". US-Iran ceasefire: This component is "Ceasefire broken" if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise, it is "Ceasefire holds". A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: munitions destroyed or intercepted before i…
Sources
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