Dem sweep & Gaza ceasefire Phase II by end of 2027?
As of Tue, 03 Nov 2026 00:15:26 UTC, Polymarket traders price Dem sweep; No Phase II (53.5%), No Dem sweep; No Phase II (24.9%), Dem sweep; Phase II deal (18.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dem sweep; No Phase II | 53.5% | 53.5¢ | 46.5¢ |
| No Dem sweep; No Phase II | 24.9% | 24.9¢ | 75.1¢ |
| Dem sweep; Phase II deal | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| No Dem sweep; Phase II deal | 4.3% | 4.3¢ | 95.7¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $61K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether the Democratic Party wins control of both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election and (2) whether Israel and Hamas reach an agreement on the second phase of their ceasefire by the end of 2027. Options beginning "Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party to win control of both chambers. Options beginning "No Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party not to win control of at least one of the two chambers. Each option then names the result of the second component ("Phase II deal" or "No Phase II"), as defined below. The option matching both results will resolve to "Yes", and all other options will resolve to "No". Gaza ceasefire Phase II: On October 8, 2025, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza. This component is "Phase II deal" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it is "No Phase II". If the agreement is of…
Sources
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