Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by...?

As of Sat, 31 Oct 2026 23:42:45 UTC, Polymarket traders price June 30, 2028 (31.5%), December 31, 2027 (20.5%), June 30, 2027 (11.5%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jul 2028.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
June 30, 202831.5%31.5¢68.5¢
December 31, 202720.5%20.5¢79.5¢
June 30, 202711.5%11.5¢88.5¢

Market details

Resolution rules

In March 2026, Brazil imposed a 12% export tax on crude oil through Provisional Measure (MP) 1.340/2026. The tax has since been extended by resolutions of the Foreign Trade Chamber (Gecex-Camex), and oil producers are challenging it in court. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) or Superior Court of Justice (STJ) issues a qualifying ruling on the merits that the Crude Oil Export Tax, or its collection, is unconstitutional or otherwise unlawful, in whole or in part, unless the ruling leaves no taxpayer able to recover any amount paid under the tax by the specified date, 11:59 PM Brasília time (BRT). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “Crude Oil Export Tax” is the federal export tax (Imposto de Exportação) on crude petroleum oils (NCM 2709) imposed by MP 1.340/2026 and continued by Gecex Resolution No. 938/2026 and subsequent Gecex-Camex resolutions, including any act that extends, renews, or modifies it. Changes to the tax’s rate will not affect this market; a ruling concerning the tax at any rate, for any part of the period during which it was collected, will qualify. Only the following rulings will qualify: (i) at the STF, a decision of the full court (Plenário) in a direct constitutional action (ADI, ADC, or ADPF) or in an extraordinary appeal (recurso extraordinário) decided under general repercussion (repercussão geral); and (ii) at the STJ, a decision of the competent section (Seção) or the Special Court (Corte Espec…

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