Bank of Japan rate decision in December
As of Mon, 02 Nov 2026 00:29:28 UTC, Kalshi traders price Hike 25bps (84.0%), Maintain current rate (14.0%), Cut 25bps (2.0%). The market has $8K in volume and closes on Fri, 18 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | 84.0% | 84.0¢ | 16.0¢ |
| Maintain current rate | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Cut 25bps | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Cut more than 25bps | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Hike more than 25bps | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $8K
- Liquidity: $8K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Hike 25bps:
If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Hike 25bps at December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
Sources
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