What will JD Vance say during his rally in Montana?
As of Mon, 26 Oct 2026 17:54:03 UTC, Kalshi traders price Border (78.0%), 2028 / Campaign (77.0%), Economy / Economic (74.0%). The market has $12K in volume and closes on Mon, 09 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Border | 78.0% | 78.0¢ | 22.0¢ |
| 2028 / Campaign | 77.0% | 77.0¢ | 23.0¢ |
| Economy / Economic | 74.0% | 74.0¢ | 26.0¢ |
| Biden | 73.0% | 73.0¢ | 27.0¢ |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 65.0% | 65.0¢ | 35.0¢ |
| Fraud | 64.0% | 64.0¢ | 36.0¢ |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | 61.0% | 61.0¢ | 39.0¢ |
| Farm / Farmer | 56.0% | 56.0¢ | 44.0¢ |
| Illegal Alien | 56.0% | 56.0¢ | 44.0¢ |
| Inflation | 49.0% | 49.0¢ | 51.0¢ |
| Working Class / Middle Class | 48.0% | 48.0¢ | 52.0¢ |
| Social Security | 48.0% | 48.0¢ | 52.0¢ |
| Tariff | 48.0% | 48.0¢ | 52.0¢ |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 47.0% | 47.0¢ | 53.0¢ |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 42.0% | 42.0¢ | 58.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $12K
- Liquidity: $12K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Border:
If JD Vance says Border as part of Midterm Rally in Belgrade, Montana originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved Video of the Midterm Rally in Belgrade, Montana originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream. If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Midterm Rally in Belgrade, Montana originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 will be used. Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word. Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc). JD Vance speaking in an official capacity. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic). Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address. Payout for cancellations and delays If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all ot…
Sources
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